Oil prices are falling on hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal, but the global energy market may already be changing as countries rethink how much they can rely on the Strait of Hormuz and other vulnerable supply chains.

Mike Armstrong and Paul Lane break down how the Iran conflict could permanently reshape global energy strategy, why oil prices may be pricing in too much optimism, and how China could benefit from the push toward energy diversification. They also discuss SpaceX’s explosive first days of trading, why its valuation now rivals the largest companies in the world, what Kevin Warsh needs to do at his first Fed meeting, why China’s consumer slowdown matters, and whether high-tax states like Massachusetts and Rhode Island are pushing more residents to consider leaving.

Markets are rallying on hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen, but the bigger question is whether the proposed U.S.-Iran agreement will restore oil flows quickly enough to prevent another late-summer energy shock.

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down the latest market reaction to the preliminary Iran agreement, why shipping traffic through Hormuz still matters more than political headlines, and what lower oil prices could mean for inflation. They also discuss the U.S. government’s move to restrict access to Anthropic’s most advanced AI models, why that could complicate corporate AI adoption, how financial literacy remains a challenge for Americans, why Big Tech’s AI spending is changing the stock market, and whether social media bans for kids can actually work.

Markets are rallying as the U.S. and Iran move closer to an interim agreement, but the biggest question is whether the Strait of Hormuz will actually reopen fast enough to relieve pressure on global oil supplies.

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down what is known about the proposed Iran deal, why energy markets still face a tight timeline, and how continued inventory drawdowns could keep pressure on gas prices later this summer. They also discuss Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting as chair, why the Fed may need to communicate less while proving its inflation credibility, why Americans remain unhappy with the economy despite low unemployment, and how SpaceX’s IPO is fueling renewed investor interest in the broader space sector.

SpaceX has officially started trading after the largest IPO in history, giving investors their first real look at how much demand there is for Elon Musk’s newly public space and technology empire.

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down the first trades in SpaceX, why IPOs often bring major volatility, and how retail investors were able to access shares through select platforms and pre-IPO funds. They also discuss renewed uncertainty around a potential U.S.-Iran deal, the growing price war between OpenAI and Anthropic, why AI costs may be forcing companies to rethink how they use different models, and Paul LaMonica of Barron’s joins the show to explain which ETFs already had SpaceX exposure before the IPO.

SpaceX is making its long-awaited public debut in the largest IPO ever, with investors watching to see how the market absorbs a massive new stock offering and whether the excitement around Elon Musk’s space company can hold up once trading begins.

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down the SpaceX IPO, why the stock is expected to open well above its offering price, and what the surge in related space stocks says about investor enthusiasm. They also discuss the latest signs of progress and uncertainty in U.S.-Iran negotiations, why oil executives are still warning about a potential energy crunch, what the G7 can realistically accomplish on trade imbalances, and whether AI is more likely to create a golden age or a major labor market shock.

The largest IPO in history is set to hit the market, and SpaceX is bringing an unusual mix of massive investor demand, limited public float, Elon Musk control, and sky-high expectations.

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down what makes the SpaceX IPO so unique, why oversubscription does not guarantee smooth trading, and why major IPOs often come with huge first-year drawdowns even when they ultimately perform well. They also discuss Meta’s struggle to build a subscription business beyond advertising, whether retirees may be too cautious with their spending, the massive logistics challenge behind the World Cup, how AI is changing hiring and job references, and why a potential super El Niño could create new risks for global food supplies.

Oil executives are warning that gas prices could get worse this summer, even as prices at the pump have eased in recent weeks and investors continue to question why crude markets are not reflecting the pressure building in U.S. inventories.

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down why the U.S. oil system may be approaching a critical inventory window, what continued export demand could mean for gas prices later this summer, and why China’s reduced oil imports may be one of the biggest unknowns in the market. They also discuss the Federal Reserve’s credibility problem as inflation moves back above 4%, whether the Fed can still defend its 2% target, why AI data center costs are creating new concerns for Oracle and other tech companies, and what OpenAI price cuts could signal about competition with Anthropic.

Markets are getting increasingly unstable as investors react to hotter inflation, violent sector rotation, and new concerns about how long the U.S. oil system can keep drawing down commercial inventories.

Chuck Zodda and Marc Fandetti break down why the latest CPI report is keeping pressure on the Fed, how crude oil inventories actually work, and why the U.S. may be closer to minimum operating levels than the headline numbers suggest. They also discuss what continued oil drawdowns could mean for late-summer prices, why Social Security’s projected shortfall has moved earlier, how airlines are preparing for possible winter capacity cuts, and why Anthropic’s new Claude Fable 5 rollout may be tied to its coming IPO.

Inflation is back above 4% for the first time in three years, raising new questions about whether the Federal Reserve can even consider rate cuts with prices moving higher again.

Chuck Zodda and Marc Fandetti break down the latest CPI report, why headline inflation is being driven by food and energy, and why core inflation remains a major concern for the Fed. They also discuss Kevin Warsh’s first major credibility test as Fed chair, renewed volatility in semiconductor stocks after a massive AI-driven rally, where investors are rotating as chip stocks stumble, and Todd Lutsky joins for Ask Todd to explain the differences between revocable trusts, Medicaid irrevocable trusts, and life insurance trusts.