Model Says Coronavirus Outbreak Projected to Peak By April 15

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Nearly two-and-a-half weeks in the national emergency prompted by the coronavirus crisis, the number of confirmed cases in the United States surpassed 165,000, the highest in the world. Meanwhile, officials continue making an earnest appeal to residents to stay home and following good social distancing practices to help curb the spread of the outbreak and 'flatten the curve.'

More than 39,000 people worldwide have died after contracting COVID-19. Residents in Italy and Spain, two of the hardest hit countries in the world that account for more than half of all of the global deaths from the virus, held a moment of silence at 12 p.m. local time.

Here is your COVID-19 update for Tuesday, March 31, 2020:

U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Surpasses 3,100 as Model Predicts 'Peak Resource Use' in U.S. by April 15

The number of people who've passed away from the novel coronavirus in the United States surpassed 3,100 on Tuesday, with nearly half of those occurring in New York alone.

The number of infections also continued to rise in the U.S. as testing continues to roll out across the country. According to data collected by Johns Hopkins University, more than 164,600 people in the U.S. have been confirmed to have COVID-19, with at least 5,945 of those recovering successfully from the disease.

Meanwhile, a new mathematical model designed by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation found that the peak of the coronavirus pandemic would likely hit by April 15. The model, which is publicly available, estimated that more than 2,000 people could die each day in the United States when the virus is predicted to hit the country hardest.

The model also estimates the number of hospital beds the U.S. will need at the peak of the outbreak. Up to 224,000 hospital beds (about 61,000 more than are available), would be needed by mid-April.

Assuming social distancing continues through May, around 82,000 people in the U.S. could die from COVID-19 by August.

The situation prompted President Donald Trump to sign an executive order authorizing the Pentagon to call-up units of the National Guard, reserves and individuals from the Individual Ready Reserve to help assist with the response to the pandemic in the U.S.

"This will allow us to mobilize medical disaster and emergency response personnel to help wage our battle against the virus by activating thousands of experienced service members, including retirees," Trump said on Friday.

Individual Ready Reserve (IRR) is a pool of former servicemembers who have recently left the service but still have time left on their military contracts. People entering the armed forces generally sign up for two to four years of active duty, but must be available to be called back for up to eight years. Servicemembers can finish up the balance of their time on the contracts by serving in the National Guard, the reserves, or IRR.

"Decisions about which individuals may be activated are still being reviewed," said Jonathan Rath Hoffman, the Pentagon's chief spokesman. "Generally, these members will be persons in headquarters units and persons with high demand medical capabilities whose call-up would not adversely affect their civilian communities."

WHO Says If You Aren't Sick or Caring For Someone Who is Sick, You Don't Need to Wear a Mask

Amid a shortage of personal protective equipment (PPE) like N95 masks for emergency workers battling the coronavirus crisis on the frontlines, health officials with the World Health Organization (WHO) reminded people that they do not need a mask if they do not feel ill, or they are not caring for someone who is sick.

"There is no specific evidence to suggest that the wearing of masks by the mass population has any potential benefit. In fact, there's some evidence to suggest the opposite in the misuse of wearing a mask properly or fitting it properly," Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO health emergencies program, said at a media briefing in Geneva, Switzerland, on Monday.

Ryan pointed to the shortage of PPE for frontline health careworkers as one of the reasons why people really don't need a mask.

"Right now the people most at risk from this virus are frontline health workers who are exposed to the virus every second of every day," said Ryan. "The thought of them not having masks is horrific."

In fact, the Surgeon General warned Americans earlier this month that the improper use of N95 masks could even increase your risk of contracting COVID-19.

"Folks who don't know how to wear them properly tend to touch their faces a lot and actually can increase the spread of coronavirus," US Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams told Fox and Friends on March 2.

"We're certainly seeing more spread in communities, but it's important for folks to know that right now their risk as American citizens remains low. There are things people can do to stay safe. There are things they shouldn't be doing and one of the things they shouldn't be doing in the general public is going out and buying masks," he said.

Empire State Building Lights Up to Celebrate Emergency Workers Battling Coronavirus

Residents in New York City got to see the Empire State Building lit in honor of health emergency workers who are dealing with the coronavirus pandemic.

Lights on top of the iconic skyscraper flipped to red, with white lights revolving around the pinnacle, making the building resemble a siren.

"Starting tonight through the COVID-19 battle, our signature white lights will be replaced by the heartbeat of America with a white and red siren in the mast for heroic emergency workers on the front line of the fight," the building's Twitter account said Monday.

However, some residents were spooked by the display, with at least one user commenting on the display:

"We know we've really screwed things up when the empire state building gets mad."

Italy To Extend Lockdown Through Easter

The lockdown imposed on nearly 40 million Italian citizens will be extended through at least the Easter season in April, Italy's government said Monday.

The European county has been hit incredibly hard by the coronavirus pandemic, with more than 101,000 cases and 11,500 deaths - accounting for about one-third of the worldwide death toll. However, health officials are encouraged by a reduction in the number of daily new infections, signs they say point to the lockdown working as intended. The number of people being taken into intensive care with COVID-19 dropped by half on Sunday, Italian government officials said. The country's healthcare system has become overwhelmed by the outbreak, with medical students being drafted to help serve in coronavirus wards and videos showing patients laying on the ground in hospital corridors.

The countrywide lockdown, which began on March 9, was originally scheduled to be lifted on Friday.

12-Year-Old Girl Becomes Youngest Known Coronavirus Victim in Europe

Health officials in Belgium say a 12-year-old girl there has become the youngest known person in Europe to pass away after contracting COVID-19.

According to a spokesman for Belgium's heatlh ministry, the girl died over the weekend. Further information about the patient was not released due to privacy concerns for her family.

Dr. Emmanuel Andre, a spokesman for Belgium's national crisis center, called it an "emotionally difficult moment."

"We are thinking of her family and friends," Andre added. "It is an event that is very rare, but one which upsets us greatly.”

Europe has become one of the biggest hotspots for COVID-19, with Belgium recording at least 12,775 cases in the country. Of those, at least 705 have died, data from Johns Hopkins University shows.

To keep up to date on the latest news about the coronavirus and to understand what you need to stay safe and healthy, check out the Coronavirus: Fact vs Fiction podcast from CNN Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta.

Photo: Getty Images


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